Every year Major League Baseball fans are reminded to not read anything into spring training statistics and every year those
same fans find themselves predicting break out seasons based on Grapefruit League and Cactus League numbers. Through the first 15 days of the 2013 regular season names like Justin Smoak, Mike Moustakas, Brandon Belt, Dominic Brown and Julio Teheran have deflated the hopes of fans and fantasy baseball teams.
San Francisco Giants first baseman Brandon Belt had a decent 2012 campaign, posting a line of .275 AVE 7 HR 56 RBI in 411 at bats. The 6’5 210 LBS left handed hitter has potential plus power but it has not translated into regular season home runs. Giants fans had good reason to be excited in Spring Training as Belt belted his way to a line of .453 AVE 7 HR 16 RBI. His 7 spring home runs tied him for fist in the majors. In 43 regular season at bats Belt is hitting a mere .150 AVE 0 HR 2 RBI.
Philadelphia Phillies fans have been waiting for a breakout season from outfielder Domonic Brown, a man once sought after by the Toronto Blue Jays in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes. Brown tied Belt with 7 home runs this spring, he posted a spring line of .373 AVE 7 HR 17 RBI. Brown to his credit has had a better start to the season then Belt but still has average at best numbers at .244 AVE 2 HR 6 RBI.
Another once can’t miss prospect is Seattle Mariners first baseman Justin Smoak. Smoak struggled for most of the 2011 and 2012 seasons but blasted his way through the spring hitting .407 AVE 5 HR 15 RBI. Smoak has really struggled to start the season, only hitting .182 AVE 0 HR 3 RBI through 12 games. His current job is only safe due to injuries to Michael Morse and Michael Saunders.
Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas had a good 2012 campaign, batting .242 AVe 20 HR 73 RBI after struggling as a rookie in 2011. After a spring line of .394 AVE 5 HR 16 RBI many predicted that Moustakas would improve in all categories and flourish into an elite hitter and eliminate the word prospect that has been attached to his name. Instead Moustakas has started the 2013 season hitting .158 AVE 0 HR 1 RBI.
Top Atlanta Braves pitching prospect Julio Teheran, once a top 3 prospect in baseball dominated hitters in 26 spring training innings. He posted a 1.04 ERA with 35 strikeouts to only 9 walks. He earned his spot as the Braves 5th starter. In two starts Teheran has struggled, only pitching 11 innings, posting a 7.36 ERA with only 8 strikeout to 4 walks.
Luckily for all 5 the season is only two weeks old and there is still 150 ball games to write the ship and have the seasons that many predicted. Although spring training stats might not predict breakout seasons for most, some statistics aren’t entirely irrelevant.
Just ask the likes of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. Both had disastrous 2012 season, incredible 2013 springs and even better regular season starts. Maybe the bounce back season can be predicted.
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